Global air traffic demand in 2024 has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, prompting airlines to focus on fleet expansion, according to a new report by Alton Aviation Consultancy.
Despite record profits, the report shows airlines are grappling with production challenges and the need for both short- and long-term strategies to secure additional capacity.
Alton’s ‘2024-2034 Commercial Aircraft Fleet Forecast’ reveals that the global fleet is projected to grow from 31,000 aircraft today to 41,100 by 2034, with an annual growth rate of 2.8 per cent.
Co-author and managing director of Alton’s New York office, Adam Guthorn said, “Global passenger air traffic is expected to increase by 4 per cent annually, with Asia-Pacific leading the charge.”
The report also notes that narrowbody jets, such as the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, will dominate the market, making up two-thirds of the fleet by 2034.
However, airlines face hurdles as aircraft manufacturers struggle to keep up with demand due to production and supply chain issues. This has led to delayed deliveries, forcing airlines to keep older aircraft in service longer than planned.
Alan Lim, Alton’s Singapore-based co-author, emphasized that while older aircraft are bridging the gap for now, the trend is expected to reverse once production stabilizes. He added that airlines must remain agile, prepared for shifts in the economic or geopolitical landscape that could impact growth.
As the industry adapts, fleet expansion is set to shape the future of global air travel, with airlines balancing immediate needs against long-term strategic goals.
