The cost of the cheapest available airfares has surged 25 per cent year-on-year, as escalating conflict in the Gulf begins to ripple through global aviation pricing.
New data from OAG shows the average price of the lowest available economy fares climbed to around $700 in the week commencing 9 March — up from roughly $560 in the same week last year and the highest level recorded for that period since 2019.
The spike marks what OAG described as “one of the sharpest early-year pricing surges in recent memory”, based on its tracking of entry-level fares over the past seven years.
Prices had been relatively steady earlier in 2026. In the week prior to the outbreak of war (w/c 23 February), the average lowest fare sat at approximately $615 — slightly higher than 2025 levels (around $585) but still below 2023 (about $670) and 2024 (around $630).
However, that stability quickly unravelled.
OAG data shows fares were slightly down year-on-year in January, flat through February, and then rose sharply in early March as geopolitical tensions escalated.
Now in its fourth week, the conflict is disrupting flight operations and pushing up fuel costs, with airlines bracing for further pressure heading into the peak northern summer period.
The result: travellers are already paying more just to get in the air — and the worst may still be to come.
