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12 November, 2020

UNWTO research shows international tourism is down 70 per cent, predicts rebound for end of 2021

By Alexandra Coulton

New research from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has captured the damage to the travel industry caused by the global pandemic.

The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer has revealed a 70 per cent fall in international arrivals for the first eight months of 2020.

The organisation has also predicted a rebound in international travel by the end of 2021.

According to the research, international arrivals plunged 81 per cent in July and 79 per cent in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season.

The drop up to August represents 700 million fewer arrivals compared to the same period in 2019 and translates into a loss of almost a trillion dollars in export revenues from international tourism.

This is more than eight times the loss experienced on the back of the 2009 global economic and financial crisis.

“This unprecedented decline is having dramatic social and economic consequences, and puts millions of jobs and businesses at risk,” warned UNWTO secretary-general Zurab Pololikashvili.

“This underlines the urgent need to safely restart tourism, in a timely and coordinated manner.”

Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer from the impact of COVID-19, saw a 79 per cent decrease in arrivals, followed by Africa and the Middle East (both down 69 per cent), Europe (down 68 per cent) and the Americas (down 65 per cent).

Following its gradual reopening of international borders, Europe recorded comparatively smaller declines in July and August (down 72 per cent and 69 per cent respectively). The recovery was short-lived, however, as travel restrictions and advisories were reintroduced following an increase in cases.

On the other side of the spectrum, Asia and the Pacific recorded the largest declines with 96 per cent in both months, reflecting the closure of borders in China and other major destinations in the region.

Demand for travel remains largely subdued due to the ongoing uncertainty about the pandemic and low confidence. Based on the latest trends, UNWTO expects an overall drop close to 70 per cent for the whole of 2020.

However, the UNWTO’s panel of experts has predicted a rebound in international tourism in 2021, mostly in the third quarter of 2021.

However, around 20 per cent of experts suggest the rebound could occur only in 2022.

Travel restrictions are seen as the main barrier standing in the way of the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

The lack of coordinated response among countries to ensure coordinated restrictions, as well as the deteriorating economic environment, were also identified by experts as important obstacles for recovery.

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data rebound research UN United Nations World Tourism Organization unwto World Tourism Barometer