International air travel is on track for another year of moderate but uneven growth in 2026, with Asia Pacific emerging as the clear global growth engine while Europe’s expansion slows, according to new data from m1nd-set.
The latest outlook from m1nd-set’s Business Intelligence Service (B1S), powered by IATA international air traffic data, forecasts global international departures will reach 2.3 billion in 2026 – up 4.6 per cent on 2025. However, the headline growth masks sharp regional divergence, creating a complex landscape for travel retail and aviation stakeholders.
Asia Pacific is set to deliver the strongest growth worldwide, with international departures forecast to rise 9.3 per cent to 588 million, accounting for 25 per cent of the global market. m1nd-set said the region’s recovery is being driven by strong outbound demand from key markets and rapid growth at major hub airports.
Several Chinese airports are forecast to record double-digit growth, including Beijing Capital (+23.6 per cent), Guangzhou (+21.4 per cent) and Shanghai Pudong (+20.9 per cent). Southeast Asia is also set for strong gains, with Manila expected to grow 20.6 per cent, Bangkok Don Mueang 18.4 per cent and Bangkok Suvarnabhumi 17 per cent.
Outbound travel growth across the region remains robust, with international departures forecast to rise by 13 per cent among Chinese and Taiwanese travellers, 12% among South Koreans and 11.5 per cent among Thai travellers. Double-digit growth is also expected from Singapore, Macau, Cambodia and Myanmar, although Japan’s main hubs Narita and Haneda are forecast to post more modest increases of 2.8 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.
Europe will remain the world’s largest international air travel market in 2026, with 1.07 billion departures and a 45.7 per cent global share, but growth is forecast to slow to 2.2 per cent. m1nd-set identified a clear north-south divide across the continent.
Northern European markets are showing stronger momentum, led by Germany, where outbound travel is forecast to grow 7.3 per cent. Major airports including Stockholm Arlanda (+14 per cent), Frankfurt (+8.5 per cent), Munich, London Gatwick, London Stansted, Copenhagen, Dublin and Vienna are all expected to record solid gains.
By contrast, Southern Europe is forecast to see declines in outbound travel, with international departures from Spain expected to fall 1.9 per cent and Italy 1.5 per cent, alongside declines at several major airports across the region.
Elsewhere, North America is forecast to see strong international airport growth of 7.6 per cent, reaching 259 million departures. Growth will be driven by major US hubs including Miami (+10.7 per cent), New York JFK (+9.9 per cent) and Los Angeles (+9.8 per cen). Outbound travel among US and Canadian travellers is also set to increase by 5.7 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively.
Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to grow 6 per cent overall but remain highly volatile. Havana is expected to see a surge of 63 per cent in international departures and Curaçao 35 per cent, while outbound travel from Argentina is forecast to fall sharply by 10.4 per cent.
The Middle East and Africa region is forecast to post modest overall growth of 1.4 per cent in 2026. While Dubai – the region’s largest hub – is expected to grow just 1 per cent, stronger growth is forecast at emerging hubs including Beirut (+25.5 per cent), Tehran (+17.7 per cent) and Addis Ababa (+15.3 per cent). Outbound travel growth is expected to be led by Iraq (+19 per cent) and Lebanon (+17 per cent), with double-digit increases also forecast for Iran, Kuwait, Kenya, Ethiopia and Oman.
Commenting on the findings, m1nd-set CEO and owner Dr Peter Mohn said 2026 would be defined by sharp regional imbalances despite continued recovery.
“While global demand remains strong, the battle for growth will be highly localised, requiring a more agile commercial strategy,” Mohn said.
“For industry stakeholders, the key will be to adapt strategies to these diverging dynamics – investing in growth markets, focusing on premiumisation in stagnating hubs, and strengthening partnerships in emerging regions where new hubs are rapidly gaining scale.”
