ATIA data shows Australians are voting with their feet, turning away from the United States and redirecting travel spend to Asia at a rate that points to something more than a short-term trend.
The ATIA Travel Trends April 2026 report, which draws on Australian Bureau of Statistics overseas arrivals and departures data, shows outbound travel to the USA fell 4.8 per cent for the year to February 2026, with a sharper 9.7 per cent decline in February alone. At the same time, Vietnam grew 16.1 per cent, China 15.9 per cent and Japan 15.6 per cent. Indonesia and New Zealand continued to carry the highest volumes overall.
The shift is not confined to outbound. Inbound travel from the USA to Australia also softened, growing just 4 per cent for the year against a national inbound average of 9.5 per cent, and recording a slight decline of 1.6 per cent in February.
The data covers the period before the escalation of US tariff announcements in early April 2026. ATIA expects the next reporting period to show whether that acceleration has sharpened further.
China inbound roars back
If the USA story points to where Australians are not going, the China inbound data points to who is coming here. Inbound visitors from China to Australia surged 79.5 per cent in February year-on-year, the strongest single-market monthly result in the data. For the full year to February 2026, China grew 21.3 per cent to become Australia’s second-largest inbound market at 1.1 million visitors, behind only New Zealand at 1.44 million.
Overall inbound tourism to Australia reached 9,099,540 visitors for the year, up 9.5 per cent, with February alone recording 943,190 arrivals, a 19.7 per cent increase. The UK (+18.8%) and Hong Kong (+17.0%) also recorded strong full-year growth.
Outbound demand remains strong despite the USA decline
Total outbound travel by Australians grew 6.2 per cent to more than 12.6 million trips for the year. Growth was recorded across most months, with May up 20.1 per cent, March up 9.5 per cent and October up 7.9 per cent. February was the only negative month at minus 3.5 per cent, with sharp falls recorded to China (-31.0 per cent), Malaysia (-23.0 per cent) and Singapore (-15.9 per cent) in that month, likely reflecting post-Lunar New Year timing effects.
Domestic capacity up, seats filling fast
Domestically, seat capacity grew across most major routes between January 2025 and January 2026, led by Adelaide-Sydney and Brisbane-Sydney (both up 7.2 per cent) and Brisbane-Melbourne (up 6.8 per cent). Load factors across the network ranged between 82 and 92 per cent, indicating strong demand relative to available supply.
“The USA numbers are the story in this data. Australians are travelling in record numbers but they are increasingly choosing Asia over America, and the trend is clear across multiple months and multiple destinations. Vietnam, Japan and China are all growing strongly. The USA is not. This data covers the period before the tariff escalation in April, so the next report will tell us a great deal about whether that has accelerated the shift,” ATIA CEO Dean Long said.
“The China inbound result is extraordinary. A 79.5 per cent surge in February from our second-largest inbound market is a major economic signal for the travel industry. ATIA-accredited travel agents and tour operators are well placed to capture that returning demand, and this data gives them the intelligence to do it.”
“Australians made more than 12.6 million overseas trips in the year to February. That is a sector operating at full pace. The opportunity for travel professionals is real, the demand is there, and the data tells you exactly where to focus.”
