Conflict in the Middle East and rising global fuel prices are reshaping Sydney Airport’s flight schedules, with initial slot allocations down across several key markets for the seven months to the end of October.
Slot cancellations are running higher than normal as airlines adjust capacity and reshape networks in response to high fuel prices, which have made some price-sensitive services uneconomic in the short term. Slot coordinator ACL Asia Pacific says underlying demand for access to Sydney Airport remains robust.
ACL Asia Pacific data shows 4 per cent of all take-off and landing slots for the Northern Summer 26 scheduling period – which runs from late March to the end of October – have been cancelled. International services recorded the steepest decline, down 6 per cent, while domestic slots fell 3 per cent. The highest cancellation rates were among carriers serving China, the Middle East, India, the Philippines and Vietnam.
India recorded the largest drop of any market, with almost one-third of its slots (32 per cent) cancelled between April and October, peaking at 60 per cent in August, 46 per cent in September and 44 per cent in October.
Chinese carriers, several of which had added services before the conflict began, cancelled 24 per cent of slots over the period, which ACL Asia Pacific attributed to fuel security concerns. Qatar (24 per cent) and the United Arab Emirates (22 per cent) recorded high cancellation rates from April to June, though these have since eased. The Philippines and Vietnam saw cancellation rates of 18 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, driven by high fuel prices in price-sensitive markets.
Not every market was affected equally, with some destinations gaining services as travel patterns shifted. Malaysia recorded a 3 per cent increase in slots, benefiting from European-bound travellers avoiding Middle East hubs. Slots to Thailand rose slightly, while Vanuatu and Canada both recorded 7 per cent increases. Airlines also added capacity connecting Sydney travellers to Europe, including Italy and France via Perth, as passengers sought alternatives to airspace affected by the conflict.
Despite the short-term disruption, ACL Asia Pacific is forecasting strong demand for the Northern Winter 26 period, which covers the five months from the end of October. Preliminary data shows international slot demand up 6 per cent on Northern Winter 25, with domestic demand stable at plus 0.5 per cent.
ACL Asia Pacific coordination manager Darren Batty said the figures pointed to short-term disruption rather than any cooling of airline interest in Sydney.
“While airlines are responding to fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty in the short term, demand for access to Sydney remains strong,” Batty said. “What we’re seeing is airlines adapting their networks to changing market conditions, and the increase in slot requests for the next scheduling period is a positive indication of Sydney’s ongoing importance to global airline networks.”
