Travel Weekly spoke to financial and business experts to unpack what could come next for Webjet Group, with one analyst saying it could be taken out by the end of the year.
Takeover speculation around Webjet Group has reignited this week following the resignation of CEO Katrina Barry, after a failed bidding war in November 2025.
In that battle, Helloworld Travel, which already held around 17 per cent of the company, tabled a $353 million offer at 90 cents per share, before a rival consortium led by BGH Capital, alongside Ariadne Australia and investor Gary Weiss, countered with a higher 91-cent-per-share bid, with both ultimately unsuccessful.
“It looks at face value as if it will be taken out… I’d be surprised if it wasn’t taken out by the end of the year,” veteran financial journalist and investment analyst Mark Story told Travel Weekly.
That sets up a potential contest between strategic and financial buyers.
“It’s more likely to be HelloWorld… it has always seen Webjet as a complement to its existing operation. That would be the most obvious fit,” Story said.
But Scott Phillips, chief investment officer at The Motley Fool Australia and a long-time markets commentator, said the rationale runs deeper.
“Strategically, they’ve got more to lose if they don’t do a deal… their business model is more precarious, and they improve their quality by moving more online,” he said.
“They may even overpay, but it might still be worth it.”
Still, the outcome may come down to price.
“Private equity may well win the day… at the right price,” Phillips said.
“There’s a lot of private equity sitting on its hands at the moment,” Story added. “At some stage… there might be opportunists looking to deploy capital.”
‘A complete and utter disaster’: demerger fallout continues
Webjet Group’s 2024 demerger remains central to how the business is being viewed.
“The demerger… was a complete and utter disaster,” Story said. “It struggled to recover, and the market has lost confidence in the stock.”
Phillips was more measured, but still sceptical.
“I’m very sceptical about value creation from demergers… one plus one is still two,” he said.
“What it has done is show the different value and fortunes of those two parts more clearly.”
Leadership instability is only adding to that pressure.
“There are unanswered questions as to why she’s leaving,” Story said. “It implies there may be agitators on the shareholder register.”
From disruptor to battleground
Beyond company-specific issues, Phillips said Webjet Group is now operating in a structurally tougher market.
“Online travel has gone from disruptor… to the battleground itself,” he said.
“You’re now fighting for market share rather than leading a new wave of growth.”
“The winner is the one getting the click… when search is the first port of call, your brand isn’t pulling people in the way you want it to.”
He said the category has matured significantly.
“The adoption curve is flattening… online travel is pretty mature.”
“It’s no longer offline versus online – it’s search and AI becoming the real competition.”
Story pointed to a parallel dynamic.
“Those with stronger balance sheets… and a war chest will be able to capitalise,” he said.
“You might see players acquiring assets at a significant discount to their true value.”
Macro pressure still weighing
Any deal would also be happening against a difficult backdrop for travel.
“There are a lot of short-term challenges… the increased cost of fuel is going to flow through to prices, which makes travel less attractive,” Phillips said.
“The short term is really, really tough.”
Story said the broader environment continues to weigh on sentiment.
“There’s definitely an overhang for the travel sector at the moment.”
“There’s uncertainty… and until that lifts, it will have a material impact.”
“The shorter term is currently the issue.”
Price over strategy
Ultimately, Phillips said the decision to buy Webjet Group may have less to do with long-term strategy and more to do with valuation.
“If the price keeps falling, it will absolutely attract more suitors,” he said.
“Everything is worth buying if the price is cheap enough.”
He pointed to Warren Buffett’s “cigar butt” investing theory – the idea that investors buy an unloved or struggling business simply because it is cheap, even if there is only a small amount of value left to extract.
“If there are a couple of puffs left… you take it,” Phillips said.
“I’m not saying Webjet is a cigar butt, but any business is worth buying at the right price.”
One thing is certain – all eyes are on Webjet Group as a bellwether for the future direction of the travel industry.
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