Business travel confidence has surged to its highest level of 2026, rebounding sharply from the uncertainty that weighed on sentiment earlier in the year.
Industry buyers and suppliers are increasingly optimistic about the next 12 months, with expectations for travel spending, trip volume and revenue all strengthening – even as rising costs and geopolitical risk continue to weigh on travel decisions.
According to the Global Business Travel Association’s (GBTA) latest industry poll of more than 600 business travel professionals worldwide, nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) are optimistic about the industry outlook moving into 2027 – up from 41 per cent in GBTA’s April poll and above the 59 per cent recorded in January. Pessimism fell from 24 per cent in April to just 7 per cent.
The sharp drop in confidence reflected in the April poll – triggered by the Iran conflict and concerns over jet fuel prices – has now reversed among buyers and suppliers across every major region.
“Business travel continues to prove its resilience as well as its value as a catalyst for growth, collaboration and customer engagement,” GBTA chief executive Suzanne Neufang said. “The rebound in sentiment we’re seeing across almost all regions is not simply about more travel, it’s about organisations becoming increasingly deliberate about where and why they travel. That combination of confidence, discipline and strategic investment bodes well for the industry’s continued momentum.”
Optimism rose from 39 per cent to 61per cent among buyers, and from 42 per cent to 64 per cent among suppliers and travel management companies (TMCs). Europe recorded the largest turnaround of any region, moving from -17 net optimism in April to +44 in September – though optimism there remains below the global average of 63 per cent.
A local perspective: discipline, not discretion
Renos Rologas, general manager ANZ of FCM Travel, said the findings reflected a more considered kind of confidence than in previous recovery cycles.
“These numbers tell a story we recognise,” Rologas said. “Confidence has always worked its way back after disruption, but this feels like a more considered kind of confidence than we’ve seen in previous cycles. Businesses aren’t travelling for its own sake. They’re being deliberate about where they go and why, and honestly, that discipline is a good thing for the long-term health of the industry.”
Rologas pointed to the sector’s repeated ability to bounce back from disruption as proof of its underlying value.
“What this really shows is just how resilient business travel is. Through fuel price spikes, geopolitical shocks and cost pressures, organisations keep coming back to the same thing, and that is face-to-face connection drives growth,” he said.
“You can’t build trust with a client, close a deal or bring a global team together the same way over a screen. That’s why, even in a fairly cautious environment, travel remains non-discretionary for companies to survive and thrive.”
He also pointed to the wider economic flow-on effects of business travel spending.
“It’s also a good reminder of what business travel means beyond the industry itself. Every trip that gets booked supports jobs, local economies and business growth well beyond our sector – think airlines, hotels, restaurants, event spaces, whole cities. When companies invest in travel, they’re really investing in the connections that keep economies moving.”
But Rologas was careful to note the rebound in confidence doesn’t signal a return to pre-disruption habits. “That said, the pressures the GBTA poll highlights are very real. The organisations getting travel right aren’t necessarily travelling more. They’re travelling smarter, with clearer approval processes, sharper cost management and a much stronger focus on duty of care.”
“That’s exactly where our role comes in,” he said. “The value we add isn’t just booking trips; it’s giving our customers the expertise and technology to make confident, well-informed decisions in a more complex world. As confidence returns, our job is to help our customers grow and travel sustainably, not just quickly, because a considered approach to growth is what will keep this momentum going into 2027 and beyond.”
Spend outpacing volume
Almost half of buyers (45%) expect the number of business trips taken at their organisation to increase in 2026 compared with 2025, up from 30 per cent in April, while more than half (56%) expect their travel spend to increase, up from 43 per cent in April. Nearly half (48%) of suppliers and TMCs expect their business travel-related revenue to increase, up from 35 per cent in April.
Spend expectations continue to outpace volume expectations, consistent with continued pressure on travel costs. Rising travel costs remain the top influence on buyer planning, cited by 69 per cent of buyers, followed by geopolitical uncertainty (45%) and internal approvals and justification for travel (29%). For suppliers and TMCs, geopolitical uncertainty leads at 60 per cent, ahead of rising operating costs (44%).
The Middle East recorded the weakest destination outlook of any region, with 34 per cent of buyers expecting travel there to decrease, against 14 per cent expecting an increase. Among suppliers and TMCs, 40 per cent expect customer demand for Middle East travel to fall.
