Global business travel is still powering ahead in 2026, but industry confidence has taken a sharp hit as geopolitical tensions, rising costs and growing complexity reshape the outlook.
That’s the key takeaway from the latest Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) industry sentiment poll, which surveyed more than 500 travel managers, suppliers and intermediaries worldwide.
While companies are still sending staff on the road and investing in meetings and events, they are doing so with far more caution than they were at the start of the year.
GBTA chief executive officer Suzanne Neufang said the market had not entered retreat mode, but organisations were becoming more selective.
“What we’re seeing is not a broad pullback from business travel, but a more deliberate and carefully managed approach to it. Organisations continue to travel and meet – and innovate – but they’re doing so while adapting to rising costs, operational friction and escalating geopolitical tensions,” Neufang said.
“These pressures are reshaping how, where and why companies are traveling now – making experienced business travel professionals more critical than ever to keeping travelers safe, navigating risk and disruption, and controlling budgets so organizations and people can continue to connect and do business.”
Europe turns gloomy
Confidence has fallen dramatically since GBTA’s January pulse check. Just 41 per cent of global respondents now say they are optimistic about business travel in 2026, down from 59 per cent in January. Meanwhile, pessimism has nearly tripled from 9 per cent to 24 per cent.
Europe recorded the steepest fall and is now the only region where pessimism outweighs optimism.
Back in January, 58 per cent of European respondents were optimistic and only 14 per cent pessimistic. By April, optimism had slumped to 21 per cent while pessimism climbed to 38 per cent.
North America remains in positive territory, but sentiment has also weakened, with optimism sliding from 59 per cent to 45 per cent.
Conflict becomes the top risk
Geopolitical instability has emerged as the biggest issue facing the sector.
Nearly eight in 10 respondents (79 per cent) identified conflict and instability as a leading travel-related risk. In Europe, concern is even higher at 92 per cent.
Current flashpoints involving Iran and the wider Middle East are already changing travel behaviour.
Among buyers, 76 per cent said geopolitical conflicts were having a moderate or significant impact on travel and meetings decisions. Half reported route or itinerary changes, while another 50 per cent had suspended travel to or within affected regions.
More than a third (36 per cent) said they were re-evaluating duty of care policies.
Trips continue, but growth softens
Business travel volume is still expected to continue through 2026, though expectations have softened.
Among buyers, 30 per cent expect trip volumes to increase, down from 35 per cent in January. At the same time, 28 per cent now expect volumes to decline, up from 16 per cent.
Travel spend remains comparatively resilient, with 43 per cent expecting expenditure to rise, largely driven by higher costs. However, 22 per cent now expect spending to fall, up from 13 per cent earlier this year.
Suppliers are also growing more cautious. Just 35 per cent expect revenue growth, down from 47 per cent in January.
Meetings go hybrid as AI rises
Meetings and events strategies are also shifting. More than half of buyers (56 per cent) said their organisation had changed its meetings approach in the past three months, including shifting some events online, reducing attendance or relocating meetings to different markets.
Still, in-person interaction remains highly valued, especially for sales meetings, client engagement and trade shows.
Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is rapidly moving up the agenda. More than two in five buyers (41 per cent) said their organisation is proactively implementing AI use cases, while another 28 per cent are using AI built into existing travel tools.
For an industry navigating turbulence, smarter tech and sharper decision-making may be the next must-have carry-on.
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