The UAE has declared its airspace fully open and Emirates is back flying to 97 per cent of its network. Europe’s top aviation safety body isn’t so sure – and the consequences for European carriers are severe.
The UAE General Civil Aviation Authority lifted all temporary airspace restrictions on 2 May, giving the green light for Gulf carriers to rebuild after weeks of disruption triggered by the US-Iran military conflict that erupted in late February. Emirates has since resumed services to 137 destinations across 72 countries, operating more than 1,300 weekly flights. Qatar Airways is planning to expand to more than 150 destinations from 16 June.
But the European Union Aviation Safety Agency has maintained a formal risk bulletin over the region through 27 May, warning that Iran’s air defence units remain on nationwide high alert and that Lebanon poses high risk to aircraft at all altitudes. The bulletin stops short of an outright ban – but as Skift reports, it amounts to the same thing. War-risk insurers are following EASA’s lead and refusing to cover European carriers on Gulf routes regardless of what UAE’s own regulator says. Lufthansa, Air France and KLM cannot currently compete on Dubai routes as a result.
The two regulators are, as Dubai-based aviation consultant Linus Benjamin Bauer told Skift, answering different questions. “The GCAA’s reopening is a sovereign operational decision. EASA is answering a different question – whether EU-regulated operators can safely dispatch into that airspace. Different mandate, higher evidentiary bar.”
Emirates and flydubai are capitalising on every day their European rivals sit on the ground. Dubai International also imposed a cap limiting non-UAE airlines to one daily return through 31 May while exempting its home carriers – a slot advantage Bauer warns may outlast the bulletin. “The structural shift won’t come via press release,” he told Skift. “It comes through frequencies that quietly never come back.”
For Australians transiting Dubai or Doha – a significant share of long-haul travel to Europe, Africa and the Americas – choice and pricing on those routes is being shaped by the bulletin whether they know it or not. Emirates carried 4.7 million passengers between 1 March and 30 April despite a reduced schedule, underlining how embedded the Dubai hub is in global travel flows.
EASA said it will continue to monitor the situation.
