4.2 billion to fly next year, 2025 travel forecast says

Travel retail research agency m1nd-set has released its 2025 forecast report, providing a detailed outlook on global air traffic trends and changing shopper behaviour.

The report offers strategic insights for travel retail stakeholders, pinpointing key airports, nationalities and consumer trends that are set to shape the industry in the upcoming year.

The two-part forecast delivers an in-depth analysis of both global and regional air traffic trends, drawing on data through m1nd-set’s partnership with the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The air traffic analysis highlights pertinent trends across major global regions, detailing the top 25 airports and the 25 leading nationalities contributing to international air traffic.

Based on interviews with over 250,000 global consumers across all regions, the 2025 report emphasises significant trends in traveler behaviour amidst a shifting travel retail landscape.

Notably, it reveals an increasing preference for experiential retail and digital touch points. The reported analysis of shopping behavior trends from 2018 to the present aims to project insights through 2025, utilising m1nd-set’s predictive analytics to examine key performance indicators (KPIs) such as; impacting travel retail, including footfall, purchase drivers, impulse versus planned purchases, pricing strategies and the growing role of experiential retail.

Air traffic trends

Among the report’s key findings, m1nd-set predicts a sustained rise in global passenger numbers, with the projection of reaching 4.22 billion in 2025, an 8.3 per cent increase from 2024. This growth marks a significant rebound since 2021, where passenger traffic has quadrupled over five years.

Additionally, the report highlights shifting regional shares in air traffic. While Europe is expected to remain the largest contributor, nearing 2 billion passengers in 2025, its share is projected to drop from nearly 60 per cent in 2021to 46.9 per cent in 2025 due to burgeoning competition from other regions.

The Asia Pacific region, in particular, is set to demonstrate the strongest growth, surging from 6 per cent in 2021 to 25.5 per cent in 2025, fuelled by post-pandemic recovery, economic growth, and improved connectivity.

North America’s traffic is projected to grow steadily, reaching 442 million passengers, though its global share will slightly decline to 10.5 per cent. Similarly, the Middle East is forecasted to see its share decrease from 8.3 per cent in 2022 to 7.3 per cent in 2025, with 310 million passengers anticipated.

Meanwhile, Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to exceed 250 million passengers, but they too will experience a declining share, from 9.4 per cent in 2021 to just over 6 per cent in 2025. Africa is projected to grow from 54 million passengers in 2021 to 152 million in 2025, though its share will decrease from 5.2 per cent to 3.6 per cent.

Analysis of airports and nationalities

The report also sheds light on recovery trends among global airports. Key European and Middle Eastern hubs, such as London Heathrow and Dubai International, continue to dominate international air traffic. However, Asia Pacific airports like Singapore Changi and Seoul Incheon are quickly ascending the ranks due to a post-pandemic resurgence.

Moreover, m1nd-set’s analysis indicates a shift in dominance among nationalities, moving away from mature markets like the U.S. and Europe towards rapidly growing Asian economies. By 2025, China is anticipated to break into the top five markets for international passengers, highlighting Asia Pacific’s expanding influence.

 Shopper Behaviour

The evolving landscape of international travel and consumer behaviour emphasises the need for continuous monitoring of market trends. Dr. Peter Mohn, owner and CEO of m1nd-set said.

“To attract travellers and encourage in-store purchases, it is essential to meticulously curate the travel retail environment,” he said.

“This involves reimagining every stage of the shopper’s journey with a focus on delivering a best-in-class customer experience.

“From the airport or cruise ship setting, particularly in areas near the stores, to in-store design, merchandising displays, interactive touchscreens, retail activations, signage, packaging, and staff interactions, every element must be thoughtfully crafted. Every touchpoint of the journey must be designed to captivate, evoke emotion, and provide a truly immersive and memorable experience.”

“The 2025 Forecast Report equips travel retail stakeholders with actionable insights to navigate challenges, capitalize on emerging opportunities, and foster meaningful connections with travellers in a rapidly evolving market landscape.” Mohn concluded.