A fragile ceasefire in the US-Israel conflict with Iran may have eased immediate pressure on global oil markets, but for Pacific nations, the shockwaves have already exposed just how vulnerable the region remains. That is why next week’s South Pacific fuel summit in Vanuatu carries far greater weight than originally anticipated.
As Pacific nations scramble to secure fuel supplies amid the Iran war – with petrol prices in Fiji rising by 20 per cent, Tuvalu sending government workers home and the Marshall Islands declaring a 90-day economic emergency – ministers from across the region are convening in Port Vila to do something about the fossil fuel dependency at the heart of the crisis.
Given the ceasefire just announced, the timing of the summit is striking. What was already positioned as a strategic climate and energy meeting has been thrust into sharper focus by the geopolitical instability in the Middle East, underlining the direct link between global conflict and everyday economic survival in the Pacific.
Ministers and senior officials from Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) will convene in Port Vila, Vanuatu from 13-15 April for the third Pacific Ministerial Dialogue on the Global Just Transition – with the landmark gathering set to shape what the Pacific’s unified position will be ahead of the world’s first international conference dedicated to phasing out fossil fuels.
This engagement began in Port Vila in March 2023, following two devastating Category-4 cyclones in Vanuatu. There, PSIDS articulated a collective vision for a Fossil Fuel-Free Pacific and elevated the global call for a managed phase-out of fossil fuels. PSIDS are now returning to Port Vila for this preparatory summit, Port Vila II, ahead of the First International Conference on Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia later this month – a historic milestone they were central in bringing about and will be crucial in taking forward.
Port Vila II aims to consolidate a unified Pacific stance on fossil fuel phase-out, build momentum for full region-wide support of the Fossil Fuel Treaty proposal and establish a PSIDS Inter-Governmental Taskforce to lead regional engagement in the coming negotiation phase.
Paying the price
The urgency has only intensified in light of recent events in the Middle East.
“The Pacific did not create the fossil fuel crisis, yet we are paying the highest price for it,” Vanuatu’s Minister for Climate Change Adaptation, Ralph Regenvanu, said. “Our communities are on the frontlines of sea level rise, intensifying cyclones, and the slow erasure of the only homes we have ever known.
“Port Vila II is about ensuring our voice doesn’t just get heard at Santa Marta – it must shape what happens there. It serves as a powerful reminder of what we have achieved and what we can achieve when we stand up for the survival of our people.”
While the ceasefire may stabilise oil prices in the short term, Pacific leaders are framing the Iran conflict as further proof that reliance on imported fossil fuels is both an economic and security risk.
“Pacific Island Nations were the first countries to call for a Fossil Fuel Treaty,” Dr. Tzeporah Berman, founder and chair of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative said.
“Even before the current supply constraints and high price of oil due to the war in Iran these countries have understood the threat dependence on fossil fuels poses to their security and to global climate stability.
“The current conflict has proven that even more so, It is an honour for us to support their leadership as they prepare for the first diplomatic conference on fossil fuel phase out in Santa Marta where they and other countries participating in the development of the Fossil Fuel Treaty will be a crucial voice for international cooperation, high ambition and fair timelines and financial mechanisms to support a fair phase out.”
The summit also places renewed scrutiny on Australia’s role as president of negotiations at COP31.
“For Pacific Islands, leading on climate has never been a choice; it has been a matter of survival for us,” Pacific Champion for the Fossil Fuel Treaty, Joseph Sikulu, said.
“We are constantly at the forefront pushing for ambition and testing the limits of multilateralism. We were the first to call for a fossil fuel treaty, knowing we need to try everything we can to bring about the transformation we need.
“Our hope is that we are joined by partners who are ready to take accountability for their actions and help us accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. The Santa Marta Conference is an opportunity for Australia, our big brother nation in the Pacific, to show up for the future of the region and to show us they are ready to lead on climate alongside us.”
With Australia set to preside over COP31 negotiations in 2026, Port Vila II is shaping as more than a regional meeting – it is a geopolitical moment, sharpened by crisis, where energy security, climate ambition and global diplomacy collide.
