Qantas expects whopping profit for FY23

The Qantas Group announced this morning that it expects the FY23 underlying profit before tax to hit between $2.425 and $2.475b.

The Group attributes this to continued strong travel demand and completion of its three-year recovery program.

Flying activity for Qantas Group increased in the second half of this financial year as new aircraft arrived, more widebody jets returned from long term storage and operational reliability improved, the Group reported.

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said the Group is seeing the broad trends it expected as the industry recovers and trading conditions remain positive.

“More parts of the aviation supply chain are returning to normal, which means we’re able to put some of the spare aircraft and crew we kept in reserve back in the schedule. That’s combining with lower fuel prices to help put downward pressure on fares, which is good news for customers,” Joyce said.

Group Domestic capacity will be above pre-COVID levels at 104 per cent by the end of 2H23, led by an increase in flying on key routes between Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

Group International capacity is predicted to grow to greater than 80 per cent of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2H23, with the rate of increase slightly below plan due to some supply issues earlier in the half – such as a three-month delay to restarting Melbourne-Hong Kong due to a shortage of ground handlers in that overseas port.

Qantas has announced a further ramp up in flying from October 2023 onwards that will see Group International capacity reach around 100 per cent of pre-COVID levels by March 2024.

As forecasted by the Group, the steady return of total market capacity has seen fare levels moderate from peaks reached in the first half of FY23, but yields are expected to remain materially above pre-COVID levels through FY24, particularly internationally. Similarly, international freight yields have moderated to levels of around 1.5 times pre COVID levels.

Jet fuel prices remain elevated but recent falls will deliver a cost improvement in 2H23, which is partly offset by adverse movements in foreign exchange for an overall benefit of $150 million. Adverse bond rate movements are currently expected to have a $40 million non-cash impact-on provisions in 2H23. Qantas Loyalty remains on track to reach the top end of its FY23 Underlying earnings before interest and tax target of $425 million to $450 million.

The Board has increased the existing on market buy back by up to $100 million. The existing buy-back of up to $500 million was announced in February and is now 78 per cent complete at an average price of $6.49 per share.

The Group is on track to achieve its revised capital expenditure target of $2,600 million to $2,700 million for FY23, which includes forward payments for aircraft due for delivery in future years.

Including the additional buy-back announced today, the Group’s net debt is now expected to be between $2,700 million and $2,900 million at 30 June 2023, which is significantly below the bottom of its revised target  range of $3,700 million to $4,600 million.