New research from the World Travel & Tourism Council has revealed warns proposed changes to the US ESTA program, requiring wider social media disclosures, could directly reduce international travel demand causing up to 157,000 jobs losses and US$15.7 billion (around AU$22.28b).
The findings are based on a multi-country survey of travellers across ESTA-eligible markets, combined with detailed economic impact modelling assessing potential effects on international arrivals, visitor spending and wider tourism-related GDP and employment in the United States.
WTTC’s analysis, in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, shows that awareness of the proposed policy change is already high, with two-thirds (66 per cent) of respondents saying they are familiar with the potential change. This suggests impacts on travel sentiment and behaviour will be felt quickly if implemented.
Around one-third of respondents (34 per cent) say they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced. Only 12 per cent say they would be more likely to visit, resulting in a clear and significant net decline in travel intent.
Beyond travel plans, the research highlights broader perception challenges. While a minority of respondents view the policy as a signal of strength, a larger share say it would make the U.S. feel less welcoming and less attractive for both leisure and business travel. More respondents believe the policy would harm U.S. economic prosperity rather than strengthen it, and a majority say it would either have no impact on their personal safety or make them feel less safe while travelling in the country.
“Security at the U.S. border is vital but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the US Administration values so much. Our research finds that over 150,000 jobs could be lost if this policy goes ahead, the same number usually created each quarter in the US,” President and CEO of WTTC, Gloria Guevara, said. “Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, put off by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for US Travel & Tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market.”
Competitive disadvantage
When benchmarked against other major destinations, this particular US entry policy is perceived as significantly more intrusive than those of key competitors, including the UK, Japan, Canada and Western Europe, placing the US at a competitive disadvantage in the global tourism market.
WTTC’s economic modelling suggests these shifts in sentiment could translate into substantial and measurable economic losses. Under a high-impact scenario the US could receive approximately 4.7 million fewer international arrivals, representing a reduction of 23.7 per cent from ESTA countries in 2026 compared with a business-as-usual baseline.
Corresponding losses in visitor spending are estimated at up to US$15.7 billion, with wider Travel & Tourism GDP losses of US$21.5 billion. The employment impact could affect as many as 157,000 US jobs, three times the average number of jobs actually created in the U.S. each month in 2025 (50,000 jobs were created on average each month in the US last year). These changes would have the effect of lowering US exports for the Travel sector and further weakening inbound prospects for a market that has already seen a loss of 11 million visitors between 2019 and 2025.
The findings underscore a clear conclusion, that the proposed policy carries a high risk of reducing travel demand and weakening the US’s competitive standing in a fiercely contested global tourism market.
“WTTC urges US policymakers to carefully assess this policy and its consequences for the economy and jobs,” Gloria Guevara warned. “Travel & Tourism is a critical driver of the American economy, job creation and international connectivity, with one in three jobs in the world created by the sector.”
